Assemblywoman Catharine Baker is leading by less than 1 percent over her Democratic opponent in the 16th Assembly District race, according to preliminary election returns from both Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
Baker, the Bay Area’s only Republican member of the Assembly, is leading Bauer-Kahan by 526 votes, with 80,069 total votes, or 50.16 percent in both counties, in the most recent tallies. Bauer-Kahan has 79,543 votes, or 49.83 percent.
With thousands of ballots yet to be counted in both counties, the final result is still up in the air.
Elections offices have 30 days to certify results. Tim Dupuis, Alameda County registrar of voters, said earlier that Alameda County is working to count all ballots before Thanksgiving.
Dupuis said Tuesday there are about 90,000 ballots left to process in Alameda County.
In Contra Costa County, an estimated 108,000 ballots remain to be counted. Of those, 82,000 are mail-in ballots, 25,000 provisional ballots and about 1,000 are conditional voter ballots. Paul Burgarino from the Contra Costa County clerk-recorder elections department said Tuesday that the next update would be at 5 p.m. Friday.
Provisional ballots are cast by people who believe they are registered to vote even though their names are not on the official voter registration list or by people expected to vote by mail who instead show up at their polling place without a ballot, according to the secretary of state’s office.
Voters also are allowed to vote conditionally if they did not register to vote by the Oct. 22 deadline. These votes have to be verified by elections officials.
In Contra Costa County, Orinda attorney Bauer-Kahan leads with 50.24 percent of the vote, or 47,238. Baker has 49.76 percent, or 46,787.
However, in Alameda County, Baker, an attorney from Dublin, is ahead with 50.74 percent of the vote, or 33,282. Bauer-Kahan has 49.26 of the vote, or 32,305.
Bauer-Kahan describes herself as a 13-year attorney specializing in regulatory law, a community volunteer, Santa Clara University law professor and mother of three, running on traditional Democratic principles. Until now, she has never sought elected office.
Bauer-Kahan questioned Baker’s self-portrayal as a bipartisan legislator by describing her as a pro-gun, anti-abortion Republican — characterizations the incumbent dismissed as false.
Baker cited 16 bipartisan bills she has co-authored, all signed by Gov. Jerry Brown. Among others, the bills put California students first in admission consideration at the University of California, connected BART to the Altamont Commuter Express train system and secured $20 million for a new parking garage in the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station.
Baker, who is pro-choice, received a 100 percent rating from Planned Parenthood in 2016, earned 2017 California School Boards Association Legislator of the Year honors for her education priorities and was the sole Republican to vote in 2016 for California’s climate change law.
“Catharine Baker’s middle-of-the-road voting record on gun safety legislation isn’t good enough for our community,” Baker-Kahan said in an email before the June primary election.
“Too many of her votes against sensible gun laws, including allowing exceptions for concealed weapons on school campuses, are unacceptable. Unlike Catharine Baker, I can be counted on as a steadfast advocate for stronger gun laws to keep our children and community safe,” she said.
Baker countered that she has voted for 28 bills — several of which she authored or co-authored — that restrict gun use, including ones that strengthened the state’s assault weapons ban, raised the age limit to purchase rifles and shotguns from 18 to 21, expanded background checks and increased fines for firearms dealers who violate state Department of Justice rules.
The Democrats have targeted Baker since her election in 2014, when she narrowly defeated former Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti. Two years later, she handily defeated former Pleasanton City Council member Cheryl Cook-Kallio to retain her seat.
Baker is seeking her third term in the district, which encompasses Alamo, Danville, Dublin, Lafayette, Livermore, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasanton, San Ramon and Walnut Creek. As of the beginning of this year, 41 percent of the district’s voters were registered as Democrat, 28.4 percent as Republican and 27.6 percent had no party preference.
The campaign for the 16th Assembly District was an expensive one, according to Maplight.org. Baker raised $2,426,206 while Bauer-Kahan’s donations totaled $1,229,927.
Baker’s key contributors were the California Republican Party, Alameda County Republican Central Committee, California Dental Political Action Committee SCC and the California Real Estate PAC – California Association of Realtors. Her top independent supporters included Spirit of Democracy California, New Way California and Driving California’s Economy, sponsored by California New Car Dealers Association.
Bauer-Kahan’s top supporters included: the California Democratic Party, Sonoma County Democratic Central Committee, Del Norte County Democratic Central Committee, Yolo County Democratic Central Committee, Democratic Party of Mendocino County and the Democratic Central Committee of Marin.
Her top independent supporter was Neighbors Standing Together for Rebecca Bauer-Kahan for Assembly 2018, sponsored by Firefighters, Building Trades and Labor Organizations.
Bauer-Kahan also faced opposition by independent spenders: Californians for More Affordable Homes and Quality Public Schools Committee, with major funding from California Building Industry Association and EdVoice; and California Alliance for Progress and Education, an alliance of business organizations.