This the year for the A’s.
After years of treading water, the A’s have put together a young, exciting, talented team that can realistically contend for a playoff spot.
So long as that playoff spot they’re aiming for isn’t the American League West crown — that’s already the Astros’.
But a Wild Card spot? That’s on the table for Oakland in 2018, so long as:
• The team remains healthy and doesn’t have to tap too far into its organizational depth.
• The five remaining starting pitchers — they lost Jharel Cotton and top prospect AJ Puk to UCL injuries in the spring — can stay healthy and either match or exceed expectations.
• Young, intriguing position players continue to progress instead of regress.
• The Angels and Mariners decide that this is another year where they’ll disappoint.
Ok, that’s a lot, but the playoffs are still possible, and that’s more than could be said for the last two years.
But this year, the A’s enter the year with an offense that could be one of the best in baseball, a bullpen that looks promising, and a rotation that still has the potential to be better-than-average.
Ultimately, I think they come up just short, I do expect Oakland to make things interesting throughout the summer. Hey, maybe if they’re close they get in on the Chris Archer sweepstakes in an effort to get over the hump.
(That’s not one of my predictions: Archer has $30.25 million due to him over the next four years — a bargain price for a top starting pitcher, but probably not cheap enough for the A’s.)
Either way, it should be a fun — or, at the very least, intriguing — season at the Coliseum.
Record: 80-82 — third in American League West [24 games back of first place (Houston), six back of second Wild Card (Los Angeles)]
1. Steven Piscotty puts up borderline All-Star numbers
The former Cardinal — traded to Oakland in a good-faith move so he could play close to home (he’s a Pleasanton native) and his mother, who is battling ALS — is a former top prospect who is in his age 27 season.
These are his prime years.
And when the season is over, I think you’re going to see big, fat numbers.
I’ve seen Piscotty’s all-around game click for stretches back back in 2016, and it’s really good — a good eye, real power, and some speed on the bases, to boot. I think he puts it together in an A’s lineup that’s going to score a bunch of runs.
So what are these borderline All-Star numbers I’m predicting? How about a .275 batting average and 90 RBIs and close to 30 — yes, 30 — home runs.
The East Bay is about to get a new hometown hero.
2. Matt Chapman wins the Gold Glove at third base
A bold proclamation, I know… Chapman’s defensive prowess is well-discussed and well-deserved, and he’s already considered a favorite to win the award this year.
But while things have improved significantly in recent voting, Chapman’s bat is still going to be a factor when it comes to winning the defensive award — that’s just the way it is.
Chapman showed last year that he has 30 home run power, but his test this year is to get his on-base percentage above .325. That’s going to require a nice uptick in walk percentage and likely a down tick in strikeouts — no small ask — but should Chapman do that, he’s going to put together a wildly successful season, establish himself as one of the best young players in baseball, and get the national recognition necessary to claim the first of what should be many Gold Gloves and the franchise’s first since 2012.
(Seriously, if you haven’t seen this kid throw the leather around, you have to check it out in person. Go early to watch him warm up — it’s special.)
3. Marcus Semien loses his starting job by the July 4
One hometown hero will rise, but another is going to fall.
To be clear: I don’t like predicting a negative outcome for an East Bay local and one of the best guys in baseball, but that’s what I’m doing.
The issue with Semien isn’t that he’s bad; it’s that he’s not great. He can hit, but he’s not noteworthy at the plate, and while his glove has improved, he’s still below league-average as a shortstop.
In all, Semien is a one or two-win player who will hit you .250/.320/.430.
That’s good enough. But Semien’s sin is not being spectacular, and the A’s have a shortstop in Jorge Mateo who they believe can be that spectacular player.
That makes 2018 a make-or-break year for Semien, and his uninspiring preseason, the way that Mateo turned heads in Arizona, and the team’s likely need for a mid-season boost (and the unlikeliness that the boost comes from the outside) has me thinking that Oakland will turn to the younger option relatively early in the season.
4. Sean Manaea turns into a strikeout machine
This is going to be Manaea’s breakout season. We’ve seen the talent for years, but he’s going to finally put it together and start performing like the A’s ace.
Last year, Manaea started 29 games and struck out 140. This year, I expect him to push towards 200 strikeouts (though I’ll settle for 180), with a strikeout rate close to 25 percent.
That’s a huge year-to-year jump, but it’s not that absurd — he’s shown three swing-and-miss pitches at the big-league level and with last year’s swing-and-miss rates, he should have netted more strikeouts.
Some of that is the art of pitching, some of it is bad luck. I think both things work in 2018 and Manaea has a monster year.
5. Blake Treinen will confirm that he’s a dominant closer
Last season was strange for Treinen — thanks to a trade between the Nationals and A’s, he started the season as a bad closer on a good team and finished the season as a good closer on a bad team.
Now, it goes without saying there was disillusionment in the A’s fan base when they moved favorite Sean Doolittle along with Ryan Madson to the Nats last July, and while both of those relievers did well in Washington, I think Oakland might have gotten the better of the deal in getting their former prospect, Treinen, back.
Treinen‘s poor performance in Washington last year was, frankly, unfair — when he was traded he had an ERA of 5.73 over 37.2 innings, most likely due to a gaudy .381 batting average on balls in play against [his fielding independent numbers showed a reliever who was pretty good (3.75 FIP, SIERA)].
But the groundball maestro (3.14 grounders to every flyball hit in his career) was far better than that in Oakland, posting a 2.13 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 38 innings for the A’s.
What changed? Well, his BABIP stabilized to league-average and his strikeouts went up, thanks to career-high usage of his slider.
That slider isn’t going away anytime soon, his sinking fastball is still heavy, despite going 96 miles per hour, the Coliseum isn’t any easier to hit in late at night, and the A’s defense, with a full season of Chapman at third and a revamped outfield, is going to improve.
I don’t think that Treinen is going take things to a new level — we’ve probably seen his best stuff — but I think he can sustain his really strong Oakland form from last season. And if he can do that over the course of 60 to 70 appearances, he’ll be one of the best closers in baseball.