OAKLAND — Nine contenders are squaring off against Mayor Libby Schaaf this November in a race thus far void of controversy, independent poll numbers and opponents with years of city service under their belts and the name recognition that comes with it.
Schaaf’s first term has had its political pockmarks, including a nagging housing affordability crisis and proliferating homeless camps, a police officer sex exploitation scandal and the tragic Ghost Ship fire that killed 36 people and revealed major flaws in the fire department’s inspection program. Yet this time around unseating a sitting mayor — and a generally popular one at that — may be as difficult as convincing the Raiders and Warriors to stay in Oakland another four years, political pundits say.
“I think she’s very likely if not certain to win,” said Oakland-based political consultant Jim Ross. “The mayor’s race is not lining up to what it was four years ago. A lot of people thought there’s not a great edge to run against her.”
If re-elected, Schaaf would become the first two-term mayor since Jerry Brown. After one term as a councilwoman, Schaaf swept into office in 2014, defeating incumbent Jean Quan and Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan. Kaplan decided not to run this November, and former Councilman Ignacio De La Fuente, despite saying he planned to challenge Schaaf, never filed paperwork to enter the race.
The candidates who pose the biggest challenge to Schaaf, activist Cat Brooks and civil rights attorney Pamela Price, have never held elected office. Both are more left-leaning and have sparred with Schaaf at mayoral forums. Other candidates that have visible campaigns are businessman Saied Karamooz and Marchon Tatmon. The other five candidates are Nancy Sidebotham, Ken Houston, Peter Liu, Jesse AJ Smith and Cedric Troupe.
In an interview, Schaaf highlighted a decline in the city’s violent crime during her first four years in office. According to a newly released report, Oakland is now out of the top 10 most dangerous U.S. cities list, dropping to 14 after historically being in the top five, Schaaf said. She also hired police Chief Anne Kirkpatrick in the wake of a 2016 scandal involving officers who allegedly had sex with the teenage daughter of a police dispatcher, some in exchange for confidential police information.
“We have actually made some tangible progress on some of Oakland’s most pressing issues, the most important one is public safety,” Schaaf said. “I am not pretending I am at all satisfied … we have a lot more work to do.”
Her woes continued in December 2016, when 36 people died in the Ghost Ship warehouse fire in a Fruitvale district building that was never inspected. In December 2017, a week-long city strike shut down libraries, public works and other city offices. Schaaf said she stood firm against the city’s unions, arguing Oakland did not have money to spend on its workers because of mounting pension costs.
One of her defining moments came in February 2018, when the mayor announced the federal government was planning an immigration raid in the Bay Area, including Oakland. The bold move thrust Schaaf into the national limelight overnight, painting her on the one hand as a mayor who stood up to President Donald Trump, and sparking outrage on the other as the Trump administration and Attorney General Jeff Sessions called for the mayor to be prosecuted on obstruction of justice charges. Her defiance became a theme in her campaign, which dubbed her “Oakland Tough.”
Ross said the move likely earned her votes among residents of the flatlands and more progressive voters, to add to her already strong base in the affluent Oakland hills.
“She’s been able not to be tainted by any of the ongoing scandals in Oakland,” said Ross, who is not working for any mayoral candidate. Although he said “I do think there is dissatisfaction on her response to homelessness and illegal dumping.” The political consultant said the election results will show how deep that unhappiness is.
With no polls released publicly, it’s difficult to gauge the mayor’s approval rating today. During the 2014 election, most polls showed Councilwoman Rebecca Kaplan leading the race, although she had a poor showing when the results were counted. The Oakland Chamber of Commerce is expected to release polls on local races Friday.
Ranked-choice voting could also play a role in how well Schaaf does. In ranked-choice voting, if no candidate gets a majority of first place votes after the first count, then the second place and third place votes cast on losing candidates’ ballots are factored in until someone reaches a majority.
Supporters of Brooks and Price have mounted an “anyone but Libby” strategy, reminiscent of Quan and Kaplan’s run against former state Sen. Don Perata in 2010. Because of ranked choice voting, Quan defeated Perata even though he earned the most first place votes in the first round of ballot counting.
Price, a civil rights attorney, is fresh off a campaign for Alameda County District Attorney. In June, Price surprised many with a competitive but unsuccessful effort against incumbent Nancy O’Malley. Price has pointed to her success in Oakland, where she won nearly all the city’s precincts.
Brooks, known for her activism during the Black Lives Matter movement, has focused her energies on police accountability and tackling the city’s growing homeless population. Schaaf recently announced a $9 million preventative program to offer financial aid and services to keep people from losing their homes. But Brooks likened the mayor’s “Tuff Sheds” program to “jails.”
“We have failed to provide equitable resources to our people,” Brooks said. “If I thought the current administration was doing a good job, I wouldn’t be running.”